Financial Model Review

WealthAi Financial Model Review

Advisor Briefing for the WealthAi Team

Prepared by Jamie Reynolds, WealthAi Advisor. April 2026. Confidential, for internal use and shareholder distribution only.

Executive Summary

A rebuilt, driver-based financial model is now ready to sit alongside the March 2026 plan. It starts from first principles (sales funnel, cohort conversion, tiered pricing, cost base, expansion curves) and produces a full set of statements. Where it aligns with the existing model, that is validation. Where it diverges, it is usually because the rebuilt model adds mechanics the spreadsheet could not capture: expansion, churn, scenarios, and a working cash flow.

Headline: with a GBP 3M seed closing June 2026, the business reaches EBITDA breakeven in 2028 at +£878K on a £15.01M ARR base, with £6.07M of organic cash. Cash trough sits at year-end 2027 (£1.35M Base) before revenue ramp catches up with cost build. Growth shape is Triple-Double (406% / 207% YoY ARR), the post-£1M ARR T2D3 pattern. Net revenue retention runs at 123% across both 2027 and 2028 on a cohort basis. Figures are from the Base scenario of Financial Model v2.42 (6 May 2026 tuning pass), built on a cohort-driven sales engine. Customer count resolves from five operationally-meaningful drivers (concurrent sales teams, cohorts per team per year, cohort size, cohort cycle, conversion rate), making every revenue number auditable in any direction.

About This Model

The Excel workbook is formula-native. Every number is calculated live in Excel from the Assumptions tab. The Python engine that previously powered the web dashboard is being re-aligned to mirror the v2.32+ Cohorts → Revenue rewire (Phase 3 work, in progress). Until that lands, the Excel is the authoritative source of truth and the web dashboard may show stale numbers. The Assumptions tab is the single source for every driver: change a value there and the whole workbook recalculates.

This is more rigorous than a pure spreadsheet: the logic is testable, versioned, and repeatable, and there is no risk of a broken formula silently changing an answer. If investors want to stress-test an assumption, we change one input in the driver config and regenerate the entire workbook.

What This Model Adds

The existing March 2026 plan is a client-by-client revenue schedule. Every named client is listed with a tier, contract value and start month, and the monthly MRR builds from that list. It is detailed and grounded in real pipeline data. The rebuilt model keeps that pipeline story intact and adds the mechanics investors will ask about.

How the Numbers Compare

The shape of the story is consistent across both models: a slow 2026 build, a steep 2027 ramp, and a profitable 2028. The differences are explainable and, in most cases, make the rebuilt model more defensible to a diligent investor.

The reconciliation table above compares Jason's March 2026 plan to the April 2026 rebuilt model (v2.1). The current model is v2.42 (5 May 2026 cohort engine rebuild) and the headline figures throughout the rest of this review reflect v2.42 Base. See the Base scenario values in the stat cards above for the current numbers.

The rebuilt model shows more clients at lower initial ACVs in 2026 and 2027 because large clients are assumed to land at a fraction of their full tier TCV and expand upward over the first 6 to 18 months (see next section). By 2028 the cohorts have matured, expansion has compounded, and total ARR pulls ahead of the existing plan. Expenses track within 5% across every year, which is strong validation of the cost base.

Key Findings

1. The land-and-expand story is now visible in the numbers

This is the single biggest change from the March 2026 plan and it deserves to be the headline. The rebuilt model lands every client at a fraction of their tier TCV and ramps them to full contract over the first phase of the relationship:

• Boutique lands at 85% of TCV, expands to 100% by month 6
• Small lands at 80%, expands to 100% by month 9
• Medium lands at 70%, expands to 100% by month 12
• Large lands at 60%, expands to 100% by month 15
• Very Large lands at 55%, expands to 100% by month 18

This matches what is actually happening in the pipeline (Plurimi landing at GBP 35K on a GBP 196K tier, Mediobanca landing at GBP 50K on a GBP 495K tier) and produces net revenue retention of 123% in both 2027 and 2028, driven by per-tier expansion of 25-45% across the platform. That is the compounding platform thesis made numerical: land with compliance, expand into research and advisory.

2. Cash runway is comfortable with a GBP 3M seed

Cash stays positive across the entire plan with the raise sized at GBP 3M and closing in June 2026. The trough sits at year-end 2027 (£1.35M Base), after which revenue ramp begins to fund the business. Full year 2028 closes at +£878K EBITDA on an organic cash balance of £6.07M.

The GBP 3M raise does the job without forcing an emergency bridge in any scenario. Conservative survives on the seed alone (£3.44M cash YE 2028, EBITDA -£555K); Base reaches EBITDA breakeven with £6.07M cash; Aggressive cushions to £13.54M.

3. Unit economics are healthy across all three years

4. Things that still need confirmation from the team

Three Scenarios

Base is the management plan of record, the numbers the business is committed to executing. Conservative is an adverse-conditions stress test (40% conversion, 12% churn, geos slip three months, 10% lean operating spend via Cost Multiplier); it shows the business survives on the seed alone with cash positive at year-end, not a forecast. Aggressive is an upside case (55% conversion, 8% churn, faster cohort cadence, slightly richer cost envelope); it shows the ceiling if compliance lands cleanly, reference clients convert their peers, and the platform compounds into the enterprise segment. Aggressive lands at 1.35× Base ARR — squarely inside the credible bull-case benchmark range (1.3-1.8×).

What Needs to Happen Next

Before investor meetings

• Confirm the named 2027 pipeline. Mediobanca, Plurimi, Rathbones, JM Finn and the rest. Which are still in, which are at risk, what is the honest probability on each. The ramp depends on it.
• Share the real payroll numbers. The cost base is close, but tightening it with actual salaries and start dates takes one more objection off the table.
• Reconcile the international timing. The model still has Italy and Switzerland opening Q4 2026. Canonical positioning is 2027 for both. Pick one and propagate, or explicitly carve out the model assumption as more aggressive than the public narrative.
• Agree the expansion narrative. NRR of 121% in 2027 is the story. The team needs a consistent pitch on what drives it (cohort graduates, new modules, geographic replication) and what the early proof points are.

After seed close

• Track actual vs model monthly. The Summary sheet has a month-by-month view. Compare actual MRR, client count and burn from month one.
• NRR is the north star. Expansion revenue from the first cohort graduates is the single metric that proves the platform thesis. Build the KPI dashboard around it.
• International readiness gate. Italy and Switzerland hires only fire if the UK playbook is documented and repeatable. Whatever launch date is chosen (model says Q4 2026, canonical says 2027), the gate is the same: the UK playbook has to work first.

Deliverables